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One the most critical barriers to the advancement of Personal Air Vehicles in today's market environment is that the technological capabilities can never seem to outweigh the risks associated with financing such an endeavor. To address such a need, a system dynamics approach with the capability to model the uncertainties in the supply chain is presented in this paper. The overall modeling framework is first presented and the modeling process of the various relevant elements, such as demand prediction and manufacturer analysis, is then described. The aim of this research is ultimately to assess the viability of a next-generation aircraft program beyond the static confines of a net present value approach, through the inclusion of dynamic events and uncertainties that can occur throughout the life-cycle of the aircraft.

Several approaches to robust design have been proposed in the past. Only few acknowledged the paradigm shift from performance based design to design for cost. The incorporation of economics in the design process, however, makes a probabilistic approach to design necessary, due to the inherent ambiguity of assumptions and requirements as well as the operating environment of future aircraft. The approach previously proposed by the authors, linking Response Surface Methodology with Monte Carlo Simulations, has revealed itself to be cumbersome and at times impractical for multi-constraint, multi-objective problems. In addition, prediction accuracy problems were observed for certain scenarios that could not easily be resolved. Hence, this paper proposes an alternate approach to probabilistic design, which is based on a Fast Probability Integration technique.

Unfortunately, the promises of efficient, clean, quiet power that fuel cells offer are balanced by extremely low power densities and great infrastructure-related challenges. Studies by government and industry have investigated their feasibility for primary propulsion in light aircraft. These studies have produced mixed results but have tended to rely on integrating fuel cells into existing airframes, with respectably-performing light sport planes being turned into underpowered show planes with horribly compromised range and payload capabilities. Fuel cells today are in the earliest phases of technological development. As an aircraft propulsion system, they are as advanced as the Wright's reciprocating engine was a hundred years ago.

This paper attempts to assess the benefits of a unique distributed propulsion concept, known as the Multi-Gas Generator Fan (MGGF) system, over conventional turbofan engines on civilian vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) applications. The MGGF-based system has shown the potential to address the fundamental technical challenge in designing a VTOL aircraft: the significant mismatch between the power requirements at lift-off/hover and cruise. Vehicle-level performance and sizing studies were implemented using the Grumman Design 698 tilt-nacelle V/STOL aircraft as a notional personal air vehicle (PAV), subjected to hypothetical single engine failure (SEF) emergency landing requirements and PAV mission requirements.

An evolving aircraft synthesis simulation environment which offers improvements to existing methods at multiple levels of a design process is described in this paper. As design databases become obsolete due to the introduction of new technologies and classes of vehicles and as sophisticated analysis codes are often too computationally expensive for iterative applications, the design engineer may find a lack of usable information needed for decision making. Within the environment developed in this paper, rapid sensitivity analysis is possible through a unique representation of the relationship between fundamental design variables and system objectives. The combined use of the Design of Experiments and Response Surface techniques provides the ability to form this design relationship among system variables and target values, which is termed design-oriented in nature.

The growth of international markets as well as business partnerships between U.S. and Asian-based firms has lead to an increased interest in an economically viable business jet capable of supersonic cruise and trans-Pacific range with one stop over (or non-stop trans-Atlantic range)1. Such an aircraft would reduce the travel time to these regions by as much as 50% by increasing cruise Mach number from roughly 0.85 to 2.0. In response to this interest, the 1996 AIAA / United Technologies / Pratt & Whitney Individual Undergraduate Design Competition has issued a Request for Proposal for the conceptual design of a supersonic cruise business jet. The design of this aircraft considered both performance and economic issues in the conceptual design phase. Through the use of Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Design of Experiments (DoE) techniques, the aerodynamics of this vehicle were modeled and incorporated into an aircraft sizing code, FLOPS.

The desire of achieving faster cruise speed for rotorcraft vehicles has been around since the inception of the helicopter. Many unconventional concepts have been considered and researched such as the advanced tilt rotor with canards, the tilt-wing, the folding tiltrotor, the coaxial propfan/folding tiltrotor, the variable diameter tiltrotor, and the stopped rotor/wing concept, in order to fulfill this goal. The most notable program which addressed the technology challenges of accomplishing a high speed civil transport mission is the High Speed Rotorcraft Concept (HSRC) program. Among the long list of potential configurations to fulfill the HSRC intended mission, the stopped rotor/wing is the least investigated due to the fact that the existing rotorcraft synthesis codes cannot handle this type of vehicle. In order to develop such a tool, a designer must understand the physics behind this unique concept.

This paper outlines work performed by the Aeronautical Systems Division of the Aerospace and Transportation Laboratory at the Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI). The paper provides limited, but pertinent information relative to the technical viability of a tiltwing configurations as civil powered-lift aircraft. Emphasis has been placed on identifying the complexity differences with tiltrotor and helicopter configurations. Complexity differences normally impact both acquisition and/or operating and support costs, although specific cost estimates are not presented.

This paper presents a quantitative process to track the progress of technology developments within NASA’s Vehicle Systems Program (VSP) as implemented on a Supersonic Business Jet (SBJ). The process, called the Technology Metric Assessment and Tracking (TMAT) process, accounts for the temporal aspects of technology development programs such that technology portfolio assessments, in the form of technological progress towards VSP sector goals, may be tracked and assessed. Progress tracking of internal research and development programs is an essential element to successful strategic endeavors and justification of the pursuit of capital projects [1].

A design process is formulated and implemented for the taxonomy selection and system-level optimization of an Efficient Multi-Mach Aircraft Current Technology Concept and an Advanced Concept. Concept space exploration of taxonomy alternatives is performed with multi-objective genetic algorithms and a Powell’s method scheme for vehicle optimization in a multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment. A dynamic sensitivity visualization analysis tool is generated for the Advanced Concept with response surface equations.

The quantification of aircraft survivability in modern battlefield environments is a complex mathematical problem. In general, consideration must be given to the quantification of aircraft vulnerability to individual weapon systems, single encounter aircraft survivability, and the mathematical mapping of single encounter aircraft survivability into mission attrition. A methodology for quantifying the impacts of electronic warfare (EW) upon aircraft survivability is realized by the General Effectiveness Methodology (GEM) which is based upon a hierarchy of computer models. This paper describes this hierarchy of computer simulation tools which extensively employs probability theory to estimate the various engagement events such as aircraft detection, acquisition, missile launch, missile intercept, and probability of aircraft kill.

A technique is proposed for examining complex behaviors in the “pilot - vehicle - operational conditions” system using an autonomous situational model of flight. The goal is to identify potentially critical flight situations in the system behavior early in the design process. An exhaustive set of flight scenarios can be constructed and modeled on a computer by the designer in accordance with test certification requirements or other inputs. Distinguishing features of the technique include the autonomy of experimentation (the pilot and a flight simulator are not involved) and easy planning and quick modeling of complex multi-factor flight cases. An example of mapping airworthiness requirements into formal scenarios is presented. Simulation results for various flight situations and aircraft types are also demonstrated.

An affordable technique is proposed for fast quantitative analysis of aerobatics and other complex flight domains of highly maneuverable aircraft. A generalized autonomous situational model of the “pilot (automaton) – vehicle – operational environment” system is employed as a “virtual test article”. Using this technique, a systematic knowledge of the system behavior in aerobatic flight can be generated on a computer, much faster than real time. This information can be analyzed via a set of knowledge mapping formats using a 3-D graphics visualization tool. Piloting and programming skills are not required in this process. Possible applications include: aircraft design and education, applied aerodynamics, flight control systems design, planning and rehearsal of flight test and display programs, investigation of aerobatics-related flight accidents and incidents, physics-based pilot training, research into new maneuvers, autonomous flight, and onboard AI.

System effectiveness has become the prime metric for the evaluation of military aircraft. As such, it is the designer's goal to maximize system effectiveness. Industry documents indicate that all future military aircraft will incorporate signature reduction as an attempt to improve system effectiveness. Today's operating environments demand low observable aircraft which are able to reliably eliminate valuable, time critical targets. Thus, it is desirable to be able to evaluate the signatures of a vehicle, as well as the influence of signatures on the systems effectiveness of a vehicle. Previous studies have shown that shaping of the vehicle is one of the most important contributors to radar cross section and must be considered from the very beginning of the design process. This research strives to meet these needs by developing a parametric geometry radar cross section prediction tool.

In today’s atmosphere of lower U.S. defense spending and reduced research budgets, determining how to allocate resources for research and design has become a critical and challenging task. In the area of aircraft design there are many promising technologies to be explored, yet limited funds with which to explore them. In addition, issues concerning uncertainty in technology readiness as well as the quantification of the impact of a technology (or combinations of technologies), are of key importance during the design process. The methodology presented in this paper details a comprehensive and structured process in which to explore the effects of technology for a given baseline aircraft. This process, called Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF), involves the creation of a forecasting environment for use in conjunction with defined technology scenarios. The advantages and limitations of the method will be discussed, as well its place in an overall methodology used for technology infusion.

A key issue in complex systems design is measuring the ‘goodness’ of a design, i.e. finding a criterion through which a particular design is determined to be the ‘best’. Traditional choices in aerospace systems design, such as performance, cost, revenue, reliability, and safety, individually fail to fully capture the life cycle characteristics of the system. Furthermore, current multi-criteria optimization approaches, addressing this problem, rely on deterministic, thus, complete and known information about the system and the environment it is exposed to. In many cases, this information is not be available at the conceptual or preliminary design phases. Hence, critical decisions made in these phases have to draw from only incomplete or uncertain knowledge. One modeling option is to treat this incomplete information probabilistically, accounting for the fact that certain values may be prominent, while the actual value during operation is unknown.

The ultimate goal of knowledge-based aircraft design, pilot training and flight operations is to make flight safety an inherent, built-in feature of the flight vehicle, such as its aerodynamics, strength, economics and comfort are. Individual flight accidents and incidents may vary in terms of quantitative characteristics, circumstances, and other external details. However, their cause-and-effect patterns often reveal invariant structure or essential causal chains which may re-occur in the future for the same or other vehicle types. The identification of invariant logical patterns from flight accident reports, time-histories and other data sources is very important for enhancing flight safety at the level of the ‘pilot - vehicle -operational conditions’ system. The objective of this research project was to develop and assess a method for ‘mining’ knowledge of typical cause-and-effect patterns from flight accidents and incidents.

The formation of ice over lifting surfaces can affect aerodynamic performance. In the case of helicopters, this loss in lift and the increase in sectional drag forces will have a dramatic effect on vehicle performance. The ability to predict ice accumulation and the resulting degradation in rotor performance is essential to determine the limitations of rotorcraft in icing encounters. The consequences of underestimating performance degradation can be serious and so it is important to produce accurate predictions, particularly for severe icing conditions. The simulation of rotorcraft ice accretion is a challenging multidisciplinary problem that until recently has lagged in development over its counterparts in the fixed wing community. But now, several approaches for the robust coupling of a computational fluid dynamics code, a rotorcraft structural dynamics code and an ice accretion code have been demonstrated.

The interest in flying cars comes with the question of characterizing aerodynamic loads on shapes that go beyond traditional aircraft shapes. When carried as slung loads under aircraft, vehicles can encounter severe aerodynamic loads, which may also cause them to go into divergent oscillations that can threaten the vehicle and aircraft. Slung loads can encounter the wind at arbitrary attitudes. Flight test certification for every vehicle-aircraft combination is prohibitive. Characterizing the aerodynamic loads with sufficient resolution for use in dynamic simulation, has in the past been extremely arduous. Sharp changes that drive instabilities arise over small ranges of yaw and pitch. With the Continuous Rotation technique developed by our group, aerodynamic load characterization is viable and efficient. With two well-chosen attitude sweeps and appropriate transformations, the entire 6-DOF load map can be obtained, for several rates.

At high angles of attack, the flow over a swept wing generates counter-rotating vortical features. These features can amplify into a nearly sinusoidal fluctuation of velocity components. The result is excitation of twin-fin buffeting, driven at clearly predictable frequencies, or at nearby lock-in frequencies of the fin structure. This is distinct from the traditional model of fin buffeting as a structural resonant response to broadband, large-amplitude excitation from vortex core bursting. Hot-film anemometry was conducted ahead of the vertical fins of a 1:48 scale model of the F-35B aircraft, in the angle of attack range between 18 and 30 degrees. Auto spectral density functions from these data showed a sharp spectral peak in the flow ahead of the fins for angles of attack between 20 and 28 degrees. Small fences placed on the top surface of the wing eliminated the spectral peak, leaving only a broadband turbulent spectrum.